The March 18, 2026 Planning Commission hearing for the City’s updated Drainage Master Plan represents a significant step toward eliminating development impediments by clearly defining improvements required for Zone 15 (Cantarini, Holly Springs, Dos Colinas, Parcel 4, etc.). 

In particular, the Basin BJ project that is planned for the east side of College Blvd. near Cannon Rd., on the southerly portion of Parcel 4, has been down-sized from a large detention basin of 49 acre-feet, to a “multi-benefit” basin of substantially lower capacity. The proposed new design includes restoration of the Encinas Creek together with grading of the area to the south (~2.2 Ac) on which the RCOA RVs are currently parked/stored. The remaining northerly area (~6 Ac) of the 11.9 Acre Parcel 4 property is designated/zoned for 155 residential units. 

The city’s updated Basin “BJ-1” design will help facilitate development of the 4K/Holly Springs multi-family site that is located to the south. In particular, construction of the portion of College Blvd. “Reach A” that is necessary to serve the Holly Springs projects will include a 300’ long, 6’ wide x 3’ deep concrete box culvert (subject to final design).

In the mean-time, the proposed 330 unit Ledcor Townhouse project at College Blvd. & El Camino Real is expected to reach Planning Commission by Summer 2026. Of particular import to Zone 15 is the extent to which this project will contribute financially to the construction of College Blvd. Reach A, including the bridge and mitigation facilities.

Traffic service failures and related hazards on El Camino Real and Cannon Rd., which can be mitigated by completion of the “missing link” of College Blvd., remain an open issue. The solution may simply be construction of College “Reach A” in increments, beginning with the Holly Springs project and completed by the Cantarini and Dos Colinas projects.

2026 is looking like a period of “mean reversion”, with the stock market, digital currencies, commercial real estate and housing experiencing softer demand and reduced valuations. While distress in commercial real estate, especially office, has been ongoing and varied by class and region, a growing chorus of analysts expect the stock market averages to drop an additional 10-15% from their high March 2026 levels and finish the year about where they started. Thereafter, growth in equity values will be slower. Similarly, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are already down about 30% from their September 2025 highs.

Rising energy prices resulting from the March 2026 Iran military conflict have spooked the stock market and are expected to manifest in higher inflation in 2026 Q2 & Q3. At the same time, the labor market has shown weakness in recent months. Despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates holding fairly steady around 6%, home prices in many markets are down slightly, resale inventory is taking longer to sell, and rental vacancy rates have risen.

Notwithstanding recent economic cooling and reports of trouble in the private credit markets, there are no immediate signs of panic, crash or recession. In fact, most economists anticipate U.S. GDP growth to accelerate during the second half of 2026, driven by higher tax refunds/consumer spending and ongoing capital investment from domestic and foreign investors, particularly in the AI and Data Center industries. It is important to note, however, that the pace of that investment has recently been tempered by concerns over a potential AI “bubble”.

With the 10-year Treasury bond seemingly stuck around 4%, we are unlikely to see much movement toward lower mortgage rates, which is the key to increasing the pace and volume of home building and sales. In the mean time, insufficient housing supply should minimize any price declines while supporting new homebuilding activity at a moderate pace.